Push-Fold Analysis of the
300-chip 15/30 Shoving Ranges

Push-Fold Analysis: Below is an explanation of how each position's pushing range was determined using SNG Wizard and my estimation of typical opponent calling ranges for the "300-chip at 15/30" section of this article:

Super Turbo Push-Fold Ranges for stacks of 300/30, 255/30, 300/40, 255/40 and 240/50

Here again are the suggested pushing hands.

300/30 (300 chips at 15/30 blinds)
EP(8): TT, AK
EP(7): TT, AK
MP(6): TT, AK
MP(5): 99, AQ
hijack(4): 88, AQ, AJs
cutoff(3): 66, AT
button(2): 33, A8, A5s, KQ, KTs, QTs, JTs
small blind*(1): 22, A2, K3, K2s, Q4, Q2s, J5, J2s, T6, T2s, 95, 92s, 85, 82s, 75, 73s, 64, 62s, 54, 52s, 42s

(*using a 270-chip starting stack for small blind range because you will usually have been in the BB on the previous hand.)

And here is how I determined the above default ranges:

If you shove from UTG on the first hand of a Super Turbo, your opponents should call you with a VERY tight range. For example, if you're pushing AK,QQ,JJ and TT only (and limping AA and KK), your opponents would be correct to fold almost everything! They can profitably call you with only AA, KK and QQ. The small blind and big blind could loosen up slightly by adding JJ and AK if you pushed and it was folded to them (since they are getting slightly better odds and they don't have to worry so much about overcallers). If you shoved AA and KK instead of limping them, your opponents would now need to play even tighter, calling with only AA and KK outside the blinds and calling with only AA, KK and QQ from the SB and BB.

Of course they will be calling looser than this (to their detriment). A few will be bad enough to call with AQ (which is behind every single hand in your range) and a rare few will even be clueless enough to call with less than AQ (stuff like tiny pairs, AJ, KQs and worse).

So what range should you be pushing? To answer that question, we first need to decide how much of an edge we require to make a push. A push that is barely positive EV for that hand alone is often better to be folded, because if you get called and lose, you will lose the opportunity to outplay your opponents later in the tournament. The better you are compared to your average opponent, the larger edge you should require before pushing (or calling an all-in). If you table-select well, you should have a solid edge over the field, so you should be reluctant to risk your stack this early.

ICM dictates that you play very tightly in the early stages of a super turbo (or any single table SNG with 50/30/20 payouts) and having a skill edge over the field should nudge you even further in that direction.

By assigning some likely calling ranges for my opponents, I've concluded that a good default push-fold range for:

EP(8): is TT+ and AK+ (and TT is marginal. In fact, shoving 99 would be a bigger error than fold TT would be). If you are playing very low stakes where more of your opponents will be calling way too loose, ICM will start to suggest you also push AQ and 99, but maybe you should not. If your opponents are calling with junk like A9s/KQ/QJs/33 etc, then your edge is quite big, so you should be even more reluctant to mix it up early. These two factors tend to cancel each other out. When you have a relatively large edge over your opponents, you should really hate racing your AQ vs 44 or your 77 vs KJ early on.

Here are my push-fold suggestions as our position improves.

EP(7): Similar analysis applies. I still suggest shoving only TT+, AK+.

MP(6): Still too early to loosen up. Suggestion remains: TT+, AK+.

Now shoving 99 would be much less of an error than it would be from UTG, but it still should be folded.

MP(5): Now you can began shoving a little wider. I suggest 99+, AQ+

If most of the remaining players are tight, you can push slightly wider (perhaps the same range as the normal hijack range).

hijack(4): suggestion: 88, AQ, AJs. The image below is a screenshot of SNG Wizard's output. You can click the image to enlarge it (opens in new window).

At this point, you should really be looking hard at who the remaining players are. If they are mostly pretty competent (meaning tight), you could slip 77 and AJo in there. If all four of the remaining players are tight, you can push a littler wider yet. And if that is the case, it means you're probably not doing a very good job of table selecting.

You may wonder what adjustment should be made if callers are looser than normal. If I loosen up the opponent calling ranges in SNG Wizard to make it more like what you would see at lower stakes, you still shouldn't push any wider. If I change the respective calling ranges (seen in the image) from "7%, 8%, 9% and 12%" to "7%, 12%, 9% and 17%" for example, your suggested shoving range actually the remains the same: 88, AQ, AJs. The Diff% goes up from 0.45 to 0.54, but it's not enough to allow you to add more shoving hands. Even if the big blind was a total nut and calls 37% of his hands (that would be down to K5o), the only extra hand you could profitably add would be AJ-offsuit.

cutoff(3): The proper shoving range is now starting to be dictated more and more by who remains to act. I think a reasonable default is 66+, AT+, but if 2 or 3 of the remaining players are tight, you could sneak a couple more hands in. I know this seems really tight, but the risk-reward just isn't there to shove wider for 10BBs.

button(2): If the blinds are unknown players, I suggest a default shoving range of 33+, A8+, A5s+, KQ, KTs+, QTs+ and JTs. That's if the small blind is calling 12%, the BB is calling 17% and I set the Edge% in SNG Wizard to 0.3. If the blinds are looser (14% and 23%), the shoving range would need tighten up to 44+,A8+,A7s+ and KQs. On the other hand, if the blinds are tight (say 10% and 12%), you could widen your shoves to something like 35% of hands: 22+, A5+, A2s+, K9+, K4s+, Q9+, Q6s+, J9+, J7s+, T9, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s and 65s.

small blind(1): Since, you'll seldom start a small blind hand with 300 chips, let's use the example of a 270-chip starting stack (255 left after posting your blind). Against an unknown, I assume he's calling with about 23% of hands, so after factoring in an Edge% of 0.3 (which is higher than the SNG Wizard default), the suggested shoving range is about 76% or 22+, A2+, K3+, K2s+, Q4+, Q2s+, J5+, J2s+, T6+, T2s+, 95+, 92s+, 85+, 82s+, 75+, 73s+, 64+, 62s+, 54, 52s+ and 42s+. If the BB is calling looser (33%), you should push only 22+,A2+,K8+,K5s+,QT+,Q9s+,J9s+ and T9s. If the big blind is a tight regular, he might be calling less than 20% of the time. In that case you should push any two cards - 100%!

Part of the reason to set a larger Edge% than the SNG Wizard default is because the big blind is slightly more likely to hold big cards, since all of the seven other players folded before me.

This means the BB will be holding an ace more often than if only two of us were dealt in. A second reason I set a larger Edge% here is because I don't want to hasten image fatigue.

by getting caught shoving something like 95-offsuit if I can avoid it. I don't worry about this so much when shoving from earlier positions, because getting caught slipping in a wider shove of 88 or AJ won't hurt my image like the slightly wider shoves from the small blind would (95-offsuit for example).

And the last reason I like a bigger Edge% than the SNG Wizard default is because ICM assumes all players have equal skill. But I only play in games where I feel I have a skill advantage.

END: Push-Fold Analysis article.

return from: push-fold analysis to Super Turbo Push-Fold Ranges for stacks of 300/30, 255/30, 300/40, 255/40 and 240/50

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